Overview of the Promise

During his 2025 election campaign, Mark Carney, as Liberal Party leader, promised to protect Canada's tradition of supporting the poorest and most vulnerable in crises by maintaining the international humanitarian assistance budget at no less than $800 million per year. This commitment was part of a broader platform emphasizing a principled approach to foreign policy, including sustained international development assistance to achieve UN Sustainable Development Goals.

Actions Taken by the Carney Government

Since taking office in April 2025, Prime Minister Mark Carney's government has focused on fiscal planning amid economic challenges, including a delayed federal budget set for fall 2025. The government has engaged in a comprehensive spending review, instructing cabinet ministers to identify cuts of 7.5 percent in program spending for the next year, escalating to 15 percent by 2028-29. This review aims to address deficits while prioritizing areas like defense and affordability measures.

In terms of humanitarian efforts, the government has announced specific aid initiatives, such as a $1 billion military assistance package for Ukraine, including drones, armor, and ammunition, with deliveries starting in September 2025. Additionally, Canada conducted an aid drop described as "immediate assistance" in partnership with allies, marking an early tangible contribution under Carney. The government has also condemned actions exacerbating humanitarian crises, such as Israel's handling of aid in Gaza, calling for comprehensive provision of assistance.

However, the core mechanism for fulfilling the budget maintenance promise—the annual federal budget—has not yet been tabled. The 2025-2026 Main Estimates, released earlier, indicate potential declines in the International Assistance Envelope (IAE), which includes humanitarian funding, dropping from $12.3 billion in 2023-2024. Advocacy groups like Cooperation Canada have expressed concern, noting this contradicts Carney's campaign pledge not to cut foreign aid.

Related Legislation and Proposals

No specific legislation directly tied to the humanitarian assistance budget has been proposed or passed yet, as the government's first budget is pending. Budgets in Canada are typically followed by implementation through appropriation acts or omnibus bills. The government has tabled motions for affordability measures, such as tax cuts, but these do not address international aid. Defense spending has seen proposals for increases to meet NATO targets, potentially reallocating funds from other areas, including development assistance.

Progress on Key Promise Elements

The promise hinges on maintaining the budget at no less than $800 million annually. Historical ODA figures show Canada directed significant funds to humanitarian needs, but recent estimates suggest a 6 percent decline in flexible ODA from 2022-2023 to 2023-2024. With the budget delay, no final allocation for 2025-2026 has been confirmed, leaving the promise's outcome dependent on upcoming fiscal decisions. To keep the promise, the budget must explicitly allocate at least $800 million to humanitarian assistance without reductions. If cuts reduce it below this threshold, the promise would be at risk of being broken.

Amid global crises, sustaining this funding is crucial, as emphasized in the Liberal platform's commitment to annual increases until 2030. Current spending reviews and deficit reduction plans could pressure aid budgets, but Carney has defended targeted investments in crises, framing them as essential.

Challenges and Potential Outcomes

The promise is currently in progress, as the government prepares its first budget amid calls for fiscal restraint. For it to become kept, the fall 2025 budget must confirm or exceed the $800 million threshold, ideally through a multi-year trajectory for the IAE. It would be broken if the budget allocates less than $800 million or implements cuts redirecting funds elsewhere, such as to military priorities. External factors, like economic uncertainty from U.S. trade tensions, may influence final decisions.

Overall Status

This promise is in progress.