Overview of the Promise

During his campaign for prime minister, Mark Carney pledged to keep Canada's supply management system off the table in any trade negotiations with the United States. This system regulates the production, pricing, and importation of dairy, poultry, and eggs to stabilize the market for Canadian farmers. The promise aimed to protect Canadian jobs in these sectors, insulate them from fluctuations in production costs, and guarantee farmers a minimum price for their products by maintaining the integrity of supply management without concessions to U.S. demands.

Actions Taken by Carney and His Government

Since taking office in 2025, Prime Minister Mark Carney has been actively engaged in trade negotiations with the U.S. administration under President Donald Trump, amid threats of tariffs and escalating trade tensions. Carney has emphasized protecting key Canadian interests, including supply-managed sectors, in public statements and official communications. For instance, in response to U.S. tariff impositions, Carney has focused on de-escalating conflicts by removing some retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods and pushing for a new trade and security relationship, while targeting specific sectors like steel, aluminum, and automobiles for ongoing talks. However, supply management has not been explicitly conceded in these discussions, with negotiations described as intense and complex.

Carney's government has also worked to diversify trade and strengthen domestic supply chains as a buffer against U.S. pressures, which indirectly supports the stability of supply-managed sectors. This includes efforts to help affected companies find new markets and develop products, aiming to insulate Canadian agriculture from external fluctuations. These steps align with protecting jobs and ensuring minimum prices for farmers by preserving the supply management framework.

Legislation Related to the Issue

No new binding legislation has been proposed or passed specifically to enshrine protections for supply management under Carney's government. During the election campaign, Carney stated that such legislation was not necessary, suggesting reliance on negotiation strategies rather than legal mandates. This stance has drawn criticism, as it could leave the system vulnerable in talks. Instead, the government has used executive actions and diplomatic efforts to maintain the status quo, without introducing bills to formally protect dairy, poultry, and eggs sectors from trade concessions.

Progress on Specific Outcomes

Regarding protecting Canadian jobs, Carney's administration has prioritized sectors impacted by U.S. tariffs but has kept supply management intact so far, avoiding job losses in dairy, poultry, and eggs through non-concessionary stances in negotiations. On insulating segments from production cost fluctuations, the government has promoted domestic trade rethinking and market diversification, which helps stabilize these areas without opening them to U.S. competition. For guaranteeing minimum prices for farmers, ongoing talks have not resulted in any dilution of supply management quotas or pricing mechanisms, maintaining the system's core guarantees.

However, analysts note a risk of being broken if U.S. pressures intensify, particularly after Canada quashed its digital services tax to keep talks alive, potentially weakening its position on thornier issues like supply management.

Challenges and Future Outlook

Negotiations remain ongoing as of August 28, 2025, with deadlines passed and new threats emerging. Carney has described talks as being in an intense phase, and while supply management has not been placed on the table yet, there are indications it could be targeted next. To consider this promise kept, negotiations must conclude without any concessions on supply management, fully preserving protections for jobs, market stability, and farmer prices. It would be broken if Canada agrees to open or reform the system in response to U.S. demands, leading to job losses, cost fluctuations, or eroded price guarantees.

Overall Status

This promise is in progress.