Overview of the Promise

During his campaign for prime minister, Mark Carney pledged to maximize Canada's steel, aluminum, and critical minerals sectors, spanning from exploration to battery production. The goal was to seize economic opportunities, create higher-paying jobs, and position Canada as having the strongest economy in the G7. This promise emphasized building domestic industrial capacity, protecting jobs, and diversifying markets amid global trade tensions.

Actions on Steel and Aluminum

The Carney government has taken steps to protect and strengthen the steel and aluminum industries, particularly in response to U.S. tariffs under President Donald Trump. In June 2025, the government announced quotas on foreign steel imports and considered new tariffs, aiming to address global overcapacity and unfair trade practices. Prime Minister Carney stated that Canada could increase counter-tariffs on U.S.-produced steel and aluminum if no broader trade deal was reached within 30 days, with potential implementation by July 21, 2025. These measures were designed to stabilize sectors hit by export declines and job losses, including support for Canadian workers and investments in homegrown capacity.

By July 2025, further announcements included a suite of targeted measures to safeguard Canadian careers and build industrial strength. While no specific new legislation has been passed as of August 2025, these executive actions and potential tariff adjustments represent initial progress toward maximizing these sectors. However, full maximization would require sustained implementation, such as passing comprehensive trade protection laws and monitoring job retention outcomes.

Progress on Critical Minerals

Significant efforts have focused on critical minerals, from exploration to battery production. In February 2025, the government invested up to $43.5 million in Quebec's critical minerals sector through funding programs to advance infrastructure, supply, and research, directly aiming to create jobs and bolster the economy. This included support for projects in lithium, nickel, and other minerals essential for electric vehicles and defense.

At the G7 Summit in June 2025, hosted by Canada, leaders released a Critical Minerals Action Plan to strengthen supply chains and counter Chinese market dominance. This led to a high-level sector action plan, resulting in three deals by August 2025 between Canadian companies (Troilus Gold, Rock Tech Lithium, and Torngat Metals) and German firms. Additionally, on August 26, 2025, Canada signed a Joint Declaration of Intent with Germany to deepen cooperation on critical mineral supply chains, research, development, and co-funding projects for industries like electric vehicle manufacturing.

Carney has linked critical minerals development to meeting NATO spending targets, stating that mining and infrastructure investments would contribute to defense goals. A report from June 2025 highlighted the potential for hundreds of thousands of jobs in Western Canada through this push. No major legislation has been proposed or passed yet, but these partnerships and investments indicate active advancement from exploration to production stages.

Economic Opportunities, Jobs, and G7 Leadership

The promise's outcomes include seizing economic opportunities, creating higher-paying jobs, and building the strongest G7 economy. Government actions have emphasized job creation, with investments and international deals projected to generate employment in mining and related sectors. For instance, the Quebec investment and G7 initiatives are framed as job-creating measures, potentially spurring economic growth in battery production and clean energy.

Efforts to diversify markets, such as partnerships with Germany and Europe, aim to offset U.S. trade risks and position Canada as a key player in global supply chains. However, achieving the strongest G7 economy would require measurable GDP growth, job statistics, and international rankings, which are not yet evident as of August 2025. The promise is in progress, with initial steps taken, but long-term success depends on tangible results.

Path to Fulfillment or Failure

To become kept, the government must pass supportive legislation, such as bills for sustained funding or trade protections, achieve verifiable job growth in these sectors, and demonstrate Canada's economy outperforming other G7 nations through metrics like GDP per capita or industrial output by the end of the term. Continued international deals and domestic investments would need to result in a full value chain from exploration to battery production.

If progress stalls due to failed trade negotiations, insufficient funding, or external factors like global market shifts, the promise risks being broken. For example, persistent job losses in steel and aluminum without effective countermeasures, or failure to develop critical minerals amid environmental or regulatory hurdles, could lead to this outcome.

Overall Status

This promise is in progress.